Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days.

Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.

• asd estimated 5% on 2014-09-28
• rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2014-09-28
• phreeza estimated 2% and said “still a lot higher than the basic probability based on a well fed 31 year old with good medical care available.” on 2014-09-29
• JoshuaZ said “Reported by whom? An official NK announcement? A claim in the South Korean press? How reliable a claim do we need? ” on 2014-09-29
• asd said “Official announcement by NK government or something as reliable. For example, “Kim Jong-un rumored to be dead” by biggest news stations wouldn’t be enough.” on 2014-09-29
• TeMPOraL estimated 20% on 2014-10-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2014-10-01
• Grognor estimated 3% on 2014-10-04
• torekp estimated 4% on 2014-10-07
• tylercurtis estimated 1% on 2014-10-10
• mad estimated 1% on 2014-10-11
• PrinceMachiavelli estimated 1% on 2014-10-11
• asd estimated 0% and said “http://m.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29608096” on 2014-10-14
• rebellionkid estimated 1% on 2014-10-30
• rebellionkid estimated 1% on 2014-12-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2014-12-06
• sweeneyrod estimated 1% on 2014-12-13
• sweeneyrod   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-06.