Conditional on UKIP winning the Rochester byelection, Cameron faces an official leadership challenge within a month.

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06.

• rebellionkid estimated 70% on 2014-10-12
• rebellionkid said “cf http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/james-forsyth/2014/10/why-rochester-matters-so-much/” on 2014-10-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2014-10-13
• sweeneyrod estimated 30% on 2014-11-15
• rebellionkid estimated 20% and said “There will be rumblings, but it’s no longer unexpected. ” on 2014-11-16
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-06.