Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan

Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.

• qznc estimated 90% on 2014-10-21
• from3004 estimated 80% on 2014-10-21
• Michael Dickens estimated 80% on 2014-10-21
• tylercurtis estimated 90% on 2014-10-22
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2014-10-22
• mad estimated 95% on 2014-10-23
• RobertLumley estimated 98% on 2014-10-23
• Ham Nox estimated 85% on 2014-10-23
• rebellionkid estimated 95% on 2014-10-23
• Tuxedage estimated 90% on 2014-10-24
• rationalnoodles estimated 99% on 2014-10-26
• bendini estimated 50% and said “lonely dissenter here, would like to know why I am wrong” on 2014-10-26
• Jackercrack said “bendini: In a third world country with a very ignorant populace, poor medical access, poor hygiene and with burial customs that involve contact with contagious dead ebola has an Ro of 2. Sources indicate Ro in US would be < 1 so little-no spread” on 2014-10-27
• Jackercrack estimated 85% on 2014-10-27
• erikbjare estimated 95% on 2014-10-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2015-09-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2015-09-02
• Andrew MacFie estimated 99% on 2015-09-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 59% on 2016-04-14
• two2thehead estimated 99% on 2016-05-24
• mad   judged this prediction right on 2017-05-08.
• mad   judged this prediction unknown on 2017-05-08.
• bendini   judged this prediction right on 2017-11-20.