Publication date of the first chapter of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality on FF.net (for what is currently regarded as the first chapter) is 1st July 2008 or earlier.

Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by BathLW on 2014-11-02.

• BathLW estimated 15% on 2014-11-02
• BathLW   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-11-02.