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I will not officially fail https://www.beeminder.com/shokwave/goals/pbook before 2012

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

  • shokwave estimated 50% on 2011-11-11
  • shokwave said “failing and wagering real money to restart will not count as officially failing; failing and starting a new beeminder that counts predictions for no money DOES count as failure. ” on 2011-11-11
  • muflax estimated 40% on 2011-11-12
  • shokwave estimated 30% and said “made it 6x steeper” on 2011-11-12
  • Daniel Reeves estimated 50% and said “You’re off the road! You stipulated that you can reset with a wager, which I highly approve of. :) But you didn’t specify a time limit on resetting, which leaves a wide loophole here. I suggest a one-week deadline on resetting…” on 2011-11-29
  • Daniel Reeves said “(You were officially off the road at the end of the day on Nov 27 so that would give you to the end of Dec 4 to reset.)PS: What is the y-axis of your bmndr.com/shokwave/pbook graph measuring?” on 2011-11-29
  • Daniel Reeves estimated 5% and said “I guess by my proposed criterion — reseting with money at stake within a week of failing — this prediction should now be counted as False.” on 2011-12-19
  • muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-19.