Herman Cain's vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be at least two standard deviations lower than his averaged poll numbers at the time.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30

• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2011-11-11
• RobertLumley said “What is the current standard deviation, and is this even possible?” on 2011-11-11
• NathanMcKnight withdrew the prediction on 2011-11-11
• NathanMcKnight said “I believe I misused the term “standard deviation” here. I’ve created a new prediction to replace this one.” on 2011-11-11