At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-14.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2011-11-12
• fork estimated 95% on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav estimated 95% on 2011-11-12
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-11-12
• RobertLumley said “Does anyone know exactly how many first-term Republicans there are? I was going to say 95%, but then I realized that I really don’t have a good estimate of that. If I had to guess, it would be around 30…” on 2011-11-12
• RobertLumley estimated 99% and said “Nevermind. 85 Representatives, 12 Senators.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_freshman_class_members_of_the_112th_United_States_Congress” on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2011-11-13
• JoshuaZ said “Allen West, David Rivera, Joe Walsh, Robert Dold, Bobby Schilling, Chip Cravaack, Frank Guinta, Nan Hayworth, are all examples. Marking right, ” on 2012-11-14
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-14.
• RandomThinker said “I wouldn’t have guessed this before the election, given the power of incumbency. That’s actually the hidden story of the 2012 election.” on 2012-11-14
• RandomThinker said “Nevermind I didn’t know there were 84 new repub congrssman. This is actually easy” on 2012-11-14