The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor.

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

• fork estimated 95% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight estimated 90% on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav said “How would you recognise ‘obsolete’? Are CRT monitors obsolete? What about inkjet printers?” on 2011-11-12
• fork said “I consider VHS, CRTs, CDs, and DVDs as obsolete. I.e., they have more functional equivalents within the same price range.” on 2011-11-12
• PseudonymousUser said “The usual way to fix these predictions is to measure sales by units or dollars” on 2011-11-12
• RobertLumley estimated 15% and said “Desktops will still be used for niche purposes I think: Gamers who need (or want) high performance graphics, programmers who need lots of processing power, businesses who want data kept on local servers, etc.” on 2011-11-12
• fork said “I see services like onlive.com being very popular by then. Also videocards or processors can be modularly connected to a mobile device.” on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2011-11-13
• themusicgod1 said “we’re already at wireless docking for mice/keyboards and with small adapter, video as of 2014. Also, most gamers are fine with graphics on handheld robots. For most non-programmers we’re probably here already.” on 2016-10-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-09
• Bruno Parga said “Desktops are still popular for gaming and laptops are in general use. I think this is wrong.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-08.