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The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto.

Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-04.

  • ren estimated 90% on 2014-11-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2014-11-11
  • Bill_Stickers estimated 95% on 2014-11-12
  • tylercurtis estimated 10% on 2014-11-14
  • JoshuaZ said “To people estimating high percentages. I don’t understand: Are you counting a bill passed repealing it that then gets vetoed as a correct for this? If not, where are your high percentages coming from? ” on 2014-11-14
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 0% and said “Not a chance. They’ll get a bill through the House, but not the Senate, and even if they did—say, by eliminating the filibuster (which would be a bad move on their part), obviously it would be vetoed.” on 2014-11-14
  • sweeneyrod estimated 5% on 2014-11-14
  • HonoreDB estimated 1% and said “Yeah, I don’t see how this can happen.” on 2014-11-14
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% and said “‘Repealed’ isn’t that clear cut. How big a change does it have to be to consider it to have been repealed. What if everything stays the same, but not more penalty/tax. Is that still ‘repealed’?” on 2014-11-17
  • ren changed the deadline from “on 2015-11-08” and changed their prediction from “The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015.” on 2014-11-19
  • Jayson Virissimo said “If the Republican don’t repeal the ACA because they don’t have enough seats to override a Presidential veto, the correct response would be to judge this false (when the time comes), not withdraw it.” on 2014-11-21
  • kuudes said “I concur with Jayson Virissimo’s suggestion. I do not see changing or withdrawing the prediction as a prudent course of action in the described case.” on 2014-11-24
  • JoshuaZ said “Agree with Jayson and Kuudes. That one can give a high probability to something which obviously is wrong when one has additional details is something one should keep in mind. It is relevant if one is trying to calibrate. ” on 2014-12-05
  • David estimated 1% on 2015-07-19
  • David estimated 0% on 2015-10-25
  • NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-11-04.