By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known in 8 days

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “By 2025. at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System” on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System” on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ said “Do you mean objects that are not already known, so not counting planets already discovered? So rogue planets and brown dwarfs essentially? ” on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight said “Yes, only counting newly-discovered objects. Rogue or “loosely bound” planets, brown dwarfs, or KBOs.” on 2011-11-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-11-13
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% and said “it wouldn’t surprise me if there were really a chunk of ice/rock that big out there beyond the oort cloud somewhere, but finding it might be nontrivial” on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 29% on 2016-10-09