For my 2012 PB predictions, my actual accuracy will be at least 10% higher than the average certainty assigned to those predictions by other users.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-21.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight said “…and I won’t make trivial predictions like “I’ll download a new Kindle book”, or if I do, feel free to discount them when assessing the accuracy of this prediction. ” on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-11-13
• RandomThinker said “How did this one turn out?” on 2014-07-09
• Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-08-21.