Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%.

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02

• RobertLumley estimated 50% on 2011-11-15
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-11-15
• Robert Kosten estimated 30% on 2011-11-15
• muflax estimated 10% and said “What’s the purpose of these social experiments? As far as I’m concerned, they only add noise to PB.” on 2011-11-15
• RobertLumley said “It’s essentially an exercise in the prisoners dilemma. I’ll probably withdraw the prediction right before it finishes.” on 2011-11-15
• RobertLumley withdrew the prediction on 2011-11-22
• RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2013-08-08