HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione.

Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.

• Mathias Zaman estimated 90% on 2014-11-19
• azax1 estimated 91% and said “I get to lord it over everyone else just a little bit more than you do, now, if we’re right. :P” on 2014-11-20
• Mati estimated 38% and said “Why do you think Hermione’s body disappeared?” on 2014-11-21
• Mati said “I’d say 9.49% that we don’t know if the troll killed her (ex.: she’s cryonically preserved)” on 2014-11-21
• Mati said “36% that she is not dead, 10% she dies but not because of the troll, 22% she died because of the troll and she didn’t continue existing without her body” on 2014-11-21
• Mati said “16% she ‘died’ because of the troll and she continues living without her body, 1% I forgot an option, 0.01% she never existed in the first place.” on 2014-11-21
• Mati said “3.5% that the answer won’t be fully determined (ex.: the tank in which she was cryonically preserved is destroyed; or the story doesn’t end)” on 2014-11-21
• Mati said “3% that a copy of her will still exist, but not the original (ex.: a digital copy; or some form of ghosts)” on 2014-11-21
• Mati said ““100%” that we should allow longer comments :/” on 2014-11-21
• azax1 said “Given metadata about EY and death, among other things, I am very confident” on 2014-12-18
• quicklystarfish estimated 92% on 2015-02-16
• ThetaAurigae estimated 40% and said “From a literary standpoint? Dying for real is a stronger move.From a ideological perspective? Making it possible to save her is more in line with what I’d expect.” on 2015-02-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-02-16
• Mathias Zaman said “Giving the current events in the story, I’m going to call this prediction correct.” on 2015-03-11
• Mathias Zaman   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-11.