Fewer than 5% of the predictions on this site are about something genuinely meaningful to either the poster or anyone around them.
Created by reallyyesreally on 2014-12-03; known on 2015-07-02; judged wrong by Philip_W on 2014-12-13.
- reallyyesreally estimated 90% on 2014-12-03
- qznc said “How would you judge that?” on 2014-12-03
- reallyyesreally estimated 100% and said “By the temporary decrease in traffic on this site as people realize despite all of their hand-waving about rationality they’re basically engaging in pseudo-science.” on 2014-12-03
- JoshuaZ said “It isn’t clear what your “prediction” means and it isn’t at all clear how your proposed drop off has anything to do with it. Why not instead make an actually actionable prediction about how big a drop off you expect by when?” on 2014-12-04
- reallyyesreally said “You are so genuinely obsessed with the minute and trivial that you’re completely missing my point. ” on 2014-12-05
- JoshuaZ said “No, we’re interested in making testable predictions. That’s the whole point. ” on 2014-12-05
- reallyyesreally said “Okay. Now quickly, what have you learned from your 800 predictions so far?” on 2014-12-07
- JoshuaZ said “I’ve learned that I’m overconfident on personal and political predictions, underconfident on predictions about math and science. I’ve made some effort to change my estimates to correct for that. Try it! It’s fun. ” on 2014-12-07
- reallyyesreally said “>Try it! It’s fun.What – exactly – is the utility gained from it? ” on 2014-12-09
- JoshuaZ said “It is funny. Right after I made that comment, I realized you’d focus on the last four words rather than the whole rest of the sentence which explains exactly what you are asking. Are you interested in actually learning or not? ” on 2014-12-09
- reallyyesreally estimated 90% and said “How confident are you in that? My statement applied to the entirety of your comment. But I am 90% certain that you are getting defensive. ” on 2014-12-09
- JoshuaZ said “Don’t confuse “defensive” with annoyed.Are you claiming that although you quoted something, you didn’t actually mean to focus on that?You are now asking the utility gained from learning what one is under/overconfident about? ” on 2014-12-10
- reallyyesreally estimated 90% and said “So you don’t get the question and your response is to get annoyed? Typical. Carry on, see how far that gets you in life. I estimate a 90% of nowhere. ” on 2014-12-10
- JoshuaZ said “The getting annoyed possibly has something to do with comments like those at http://predictionbook.com/predictions/48253 or http://predictionbook.com/predictions/49161 etc. If you want to continue this discussion, let’s do it at LW. ” on 2014-12-10
- JoshuaZ said “Right now you are just clogging up the signal to noise ratio here, and you clearly don’t intend to use the website for its purpose. ” on 2014-12-10
- reallyyesreally said “Welp, we’re not going to get anywhere if you’re going to go about blaming me for all of your emotions. Feel free to “use this site for its intended purpose” once you figure it out yourself, maybe. I’m out.” on 2014-12-10
- Philip_W judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-13.