A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16

• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2014-12-04
• reallyyesreally said “So it probably won’t be discovered. Okay. Great. Good to know. I’ll let the CompSci department know. Can PredictionBook be cited in a paper? Because it needs to be. ” on 2014-12-05
• Michael Dickens estimated 5% on 2014-12-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2016-01-02