I will make at least one discussion level post on Less Wrong before January 15th

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-05; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2014-12-05
• reallyyesreally estimated 5% on 2014-12-07
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2014-12-27.