There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009.

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by Arenamontanus on 2009-11-17.

• Arenamontanus estimated 83% on 2009-10-14
• othercriteria estimated 20% on 2009-10-15
• pre estimated 1% on 2009-10-15
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 5% on 2009-11-12
• Jack said “The death toll in El Salvador is 192 and there are still 80 missing. Looks like this is going to turn out right, sadly.” on 2009-11-16
• Arenamontanus   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-11-17.
• Arenamontanus said “ It looks like El Salvador came close, but not quite up to 200. This might have to be revised if some of the missing turn up dead.” on 2009-11-17
• Jack said “El Salvador dead down to 140. Must have been duplicate reports of dead. Should have seen that coming. Same thing happened after 9/11.” on 2009-12-02