By 2045, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered.
- JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2014-12-09
- JoshuaZ said “Motivation for prediction is recent work with sulfur hydride. ” on 2014-12-09
- moridinamael estimated 99% on 2015-01-07
- JoshuaZ said “Moridinamaej, can you explain why you assign this such a high likelihood? ” on 2015-01-07
- JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/70208” on 2015-03-06
- JoshuaZ estimated 81% and said “http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature14964.html shows superconductor with critical temperature of 203 K. Updating accordingly. ” on 2015-08-21
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 76% on 2016-01-17
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 70% and said “235 K is possible.” on 2016-02-16
- moridinamael said “There was no requirement for atmospheric pressure, and a 287 K superconductor at 267 GPa was discovered, so do we call this one settled?” 7 days ago
- moridinamael said “To answer the question you asked five years ago, 99% was probably too high in retrospect (despite the fact that I was right) but I found it difficult to imagine that we wouldn’t have figured this out by 2045” 7 days ago
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction right 7 days ago.
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown 7 days ago.
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