By 2045, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-09; known on 2045-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ 7 days ago.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2014-12-09
  • JoshuaZ said “Motivation for prediction is recent work with sulfur hydride. on 2014-12-09
  • moridinamael estimated 99% on 2015-01-07
  • JoshuaZ said “Moridinamaej, can you explain why you assign this such a high likelihood? on 2015-01-07
  • JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/70208on 2015-03-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 81% and said “http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature14964.html shows superconductor with critical temperature of 203 K. Updating accordingly. on 2015-08-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 76% on 2016-01-17
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 70% and said “235 K is possible.on 2016-02-16
  • moridinamael said “There was no requirement for atmospheric pressure, and a 287 K superconductor at 267 GPa was discovered, so do we call this one settled?7 days ago
  • moridinamael said “To answer the question you asked five years ago, 99% was probably too high in retrospect (despite the fact that I was right) but I found it difficult to imagine that we wouldn’t have figured this out by 20457 days ago
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right 7 days ago.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown 7 days ago.

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