By 2045, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-09; known on 2045-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.

• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2014-12-09
• JoshuaZ said “Motivation for prediction is recent work with sulfur hydride. ” on 2014-12-09
• moridinamael estimated 99% on 2015-01-07
• JoshuaZ said “Moridinamaej, can you explain why you assign this such a high likelihood? ” on 2015-01-07
• JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/70208” on 2015-03-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 81% and said “http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature14964.html shows superconductor with critical temperature of 203 K. Updating accordingly. ” on 2015-08-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 76% on 2016-01-17
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 70% and said “235 K is possible.” on 2016-02-16
• moridinamael said “There was no requirement for atmospheric pressure, and a 287 K superconductor at 267 GPa was discovered, so do we call this one settled?” on 2020-10-14
• moridinamael said “To answer the question you asked five years ago, 99% was probably too high in retrospect (despite the fact that I was right) but I found it difficult to imagine that we wouldn’t have figured this out by 2045” on 2020-10-14
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2020-10-15.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2020-10-15.