The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5kgp” on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 75% on 2012-01-02
• muflax estimated 70% on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 90% on 2012-01-03
• Larklight said “Pure laplace’s law” on 2012-01-03
• saturn estimated 90% on 2012-01-07
• RandomThinker estimated 80% on 2012-03-06
• RandomThinker said “Very interesting. I think Romney spent more, if you count SuperPAC money. Less if you count only candidate spending or candidate + national party. http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/index.php” on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker said “I think the answer should be fairly be “No” here. It’s a bit of a surprise, but the guy/team who spent more lost.” on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-03.