The Queen will formally abdicate this year

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

• rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2014-12-18
• sweeneyrod estimated 5% on 2014-12-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2014-12-19
• rebellionkid estimated 1% on 2014-12-25
• Jenson estimated 1% and said “Ten percent!?I’d say ten percent seems more realistic as being the chances of her abdicating at all, given that there has been only one voluntary abdication in centuries. How is it more likely to be this year than any other? Explain.” on 2014-12-30
• ericlefevre estimated 1% on 2014-12-31
• rebellionkid said “Catalysed originally by a run at the bookies which looked like insider information. Hence the drop to epsilon again after it was officially denied.” on 2015-01-02
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-05.