PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2014-12-19
  • JoshuaZ said “This is not meant to include a small number of people killed near the DMZ again but only to refer to an event described as a war by the general media. ” on 2014-12-19
  • RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2014-12-19
  • tylercurtis estimated 10% on 2014-12-20
  • sweeneyrod estimated 20% on 2014-12-20
  • EloiseRosen estimated 15% on 2014-12-27
  • egastfriend estimated 50% and said “The collapse of any government (even N. Korea) in any given 4-year period is pretty low, but the situation is very precarious now in N Korea, and I think as The Interview gets distributed within the country it could be destabilizing.” on 2014-12-29
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 10% on 2014-12-29
  • ericlefevre estimated 10% on 2014-12-31
  • fiftytwo estimated 20% on 2015-01-02
  • EloiseRosen estimated 20% on 2015-01-03
  • sweeneyrod said “@egastfriend The Interview isn’t going to be distributed in NK – censorship is how dictatorships stay functioning.” on 2015-01-11
  • JoshuaZ said “@sweeneyrod, I believe that egastfriend is talking about plans by various SK groups to balloon drop copies in as well as to smuggle them in. ” on 2015-01-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Updating.” on 2015-04-11
  • JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/58215” on 2015-04-11
  • elephantower estimated 5% and said “Why on earth would any of the listed countries go to war with a nuclear power (especially one allied with China)? Either way, China will do everything possible (quite a bit) to prevent collapse” on 2016-07-10
  • elephantower said “And that isn’t because of any warm feelings between the two leaders/countries, but because a flood of destitute NK refugees/civil war would be a disaster for China — this means that tensions between China & NK don’t materially affect the result” on 2016-07-10
  • btrettel estimated 20% on 2016-09-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-12-19
  • vinegar estimated 15% on 2018-10-25
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.