General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2014-12-20
• adbge estimated 40% on 2014-12-23
• RandomThinker estimated 55% and said “General consensus is probably going to stick to the main story. If there are doubters, they’ll probably be marginalized, unless someone else is caught red handed or open declares themselves the hacker” on 2014-12-23
• ack4 estimated 10% on 2014-12-27
• moridinamael estimated 15% on 2015-01-07
• JoshuaZ said “Hmm, this looks like it is going to be hard to judge. ” on 2015-12-14
• PseudonymousUser said “Consensus is NK did it, possibly with Chinese help/talent/infrastructure.” on 2016-01-10
• PseudonymousUser said “Maybe some believe a different story, but I would say the official story will be at least the plurality—if not the majority—answer.” on 2016-01-10
• PseudonymousUser said “That being said, I have no numbers to back that up.” on 2016-01-10
• moridinamael said “Can we judge this as wrong, since there doesn’t appear to be a true consensus even as of today?” on 2016-12-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-12-14
• two2thehead said “@moridinamael. I think it depends on who made the prediction. For me similar predictions have three possible ways of judging correctness. See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180441” on 2016-12-15
• two2thehead said “[US Govt acknowledgment/accusation] OR [NYTimes or similar organization story See the NYTimes Stuxnet story. [What counts as a story will be judged by me]] OR [Declassification of materials that admit to it]” on 2016-12-15
• themusicgod1 said “relevant https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-13/don-t-assume-that-russia-hacked-the-u-s-election” on 2016-12-18
• themusicgod1 said “relevant? https://quitter.im/notice/2133675” on 2017-09-10