HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg)

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

• Anubhav estimated 2% on 2012-01-22
• Anubhav said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7jd/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/4vf7 got me thinking… But if the first cached explanation to come to mind is true, Voldemort would have made one by now.” on 2012-01-22
• Grognor estimated 1% on 2012-01-22
• Anubhav said “But while his Muggle allies yet made blood sacrifice to sustain him, Grindelwald would not have fallen. He was, during that time, truly invincible. There is an ill thing bound up in this matter; a grim secret of which none must know…” on 2012-01-30
• Anubhav said “(chapter 74) Not going to update though, this is most likely positive bias and he could easily have been talking about horcruxes. (Still, the Vfuinyna znffnper is generally considered to be based on the holocaust…)” on 2012-01-30
• Anubhav changed their prediction from “MOR: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg)” on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 1% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% and said “Unless Dumbledore is both secretly evil and getting in on the benefits, that’s pretty much out of the question.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 20% on 2012-04-20
• jesyspa estimated 25% on 2012-05-13
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.