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I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no.

Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.

  • Leo estimated 95% on 2012-01-25
  • RobertLumley said “Hope you’re wrong. Good luck.” on 2012-01-25
  • Anubhav estimated 80% and said “Ah, memories…” on 2012-01-25
  • faws estimated 75% on 2012-01-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 80% and said “Conjunction issues make me reduce the chance. But projected confidence in this sort of context can drastically influence success. Good luck. ” on 2012-01-25
  • saturn estimated 43% and said “Based on 50% chance of asking and 85% chance the answer is no.” on 2012-01-25
  • Anubhav estimated 56% and said “Mmm, right. A lot of people predicting they’re gonna turn him down might be demoralising, thus reducing the chance of his actually asking them out.” on 2012-01-26
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2012-01-26
  • RobertLumley said “That’s why conjoined predictions are bad, Anubhav. :-) At any rate, I still say go for it. Nothing to lose, everything to gain.” on 2012-01-26
  • Leo said “Y’all are far underestimating the probability I’ll ask.” on 2012-01-26
  • RobertLumley said “That’s largely true empirically. I’m wondering why everyone’s estimates are so low. Leo himself assigns at least a 95% probability that he will ask.” on 2012-01-26
  • Anubhav estimated 70% and said “Ratcheting back up. (80% chance of asking, 90% chance of rejection.)” on 2012-01-27
  • Leo said “Seriously guys still far overestimating P(~ask), it’s basically P(major accident), if I could get cold feet or fail to run into them I would have put it in my initial estimate, also I sound like Dinosaur comics.” on 2012-01-27
  • Anubhav estimated 90% and said “OK, 90% chance of rejection then. ” on 2012-01-27
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 24% on 2012-01-27
  • Grognor estimated 55% and said “Anubhav, you know, each of those estimates goes into your permanent statistics. Changing them every time you hear something new will tremendously overweight your transient fleeting feelings.” on 2012-01-27
  • Anubhav said “One man’s ‘transient fleeting feelings’ is another man’s ‘updating on new information’. (But I will be very annoyed if Leo turns out to be overconfident about his crush saying ‘no’.)” on 2012-01-27
  • Julian Pulgarin said “This is awesome.” on 2012-01-30
  • Leo   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-30.
  • Leo said “They made a sad trombone sound upon seeing me enter the result here.” on 2012-01-30