My self-promoting link on /r/shakespeare will have karma >0 and <11. http://www.reddit.com/r/shakespeare/comments/oy0rb/the_tragedy_of_prince_hamlet_and_the_philosophers/

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-02-02.

• HonoreDB estimated 90% on 2012-01-26
• Leo estimated 70% on 2012-01-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2012-01-27
• chemotaxis101 estimated 95% on 2012-01-30
• HonoreDB said “I didn’t know that reddit randomly alters the link karma it displays. I think the link is at >0 karma right now because on reloads it varies between -1 and +3, but I don’t know if the sign of the bias is random.” on 2012-02-01
• HonoreDB said “On further investigation, the upvotes range from 5-7 and the downvotes range from 4-6. So it seems very likely that reddit adds a random integer from -1 to 1 to both upvotes and downvotes independently on each load, and the true karma is 6-5=1.” on 2012-02-02
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-02.