Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.

• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2014-12-31
• JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2119 See especially Eggo’s comment number 73 there. ” on 2014-12-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2015-01-01
• Rowan93 estimated 80% on 2015-01-01
• rebellionkid estimated 75% on 2015-01-02
• fiftytwo estimated 20% on 2015-01-02
• EloiseRosen estimated 90% on 2015-01-03
• fiftytwo estimated 80% and said “Misread original, missed the “not”” on 2015-01-03
• RoryS estimated 80% on 2015-01-03
• RobertLumley estimated 95% on 2015-01-05
• moridinamael estimated 80% on 2015-01-07
• kuudes estimated 95% on 2015-01-12
• kuudes   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-25.