Barack Obama will be President of the United States as of 1st January 2016.

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

• roreiy estimated 95% on 2015-01-03
• doxievee estimated 97% on 2015-01-03
• sweeneyrod estimated 98% on 2015-01-03
• rebellionkid estimated 98% on 2015-01-05
• RobertLumley estimated 98% on 2015-01-05
• Pablo estimated 3% and said “0.7% chance of dying given actuarial tables, 1.8% chance of being assassinated assuming a base rate of 4/226 (four assassinations over a 226-year period), and a 0.4% chance of resignation assuming a base rate of 1/226.” on 2015-01-14
• Pablo estimated 97% and said “(I meant the complement of 3%)” on 2015-01-14
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-05.