PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

I will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2013-02-02; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-03.

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2012-02-06
  • Jayson Virissimo said “The reason for the (somewhat) high probability is because I have been considering it for reasons of instrumental rationality a la Patrissimo.” on 2012-02-06
  • Grognor estimated 40% on 2012-02-13
  • torekp estimated 30% and said “Does posting comments count? BTW I think you need at least one month sans posts to declare True: known on 2013-02-01.” on 2012-02-24
  • Jayson Virissimo said “One month sounds reasonable. Comments count as “posting”.” on 2012-02-24
  • Jayson Virissimo changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-01” on 2012-05-28
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 45% on 2012-05-28
  • HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-03.