In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people.

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.

• EloiseRosen estimated 85% on 2015-01-10
• rebellionkid estimated 90% on 2015-01-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2015-01-11
• dgray estimated 85% on 2015-01-11
• sweeneyrod estimated 80% on 2015-01-11
• benwr estimated 50% and said “(sorry for spamming; temporarily giving 50% to everything I have no info on)” on 2015-01-12
• kuudes estimated 95% on 2015-01-12
• Pablo estimated 85% and said “Since 1970, there have been 11 years having more than 40 victims of terrorism in the US. But they don’t seem randomly distributed; proportionally more are in the 1970s.” on 2015-01-14
• Pablo estimated 95% and said “I now realize that the figures I quoted are for people wounded, not killed, by terrorism. Moreover, the prediction requires more than 40 people to die in a single terrorist event, rather than over multiple events in a single year.” on 2015-01-14
• woodse estimated 80% on 2015-01-15
• mad estimated 95% on 2015-01-18
• EloiseRosen estimated 90% on 2015-01-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2015-01-24
• EloiseRosen   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.