A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1.

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.

  • brandyn estimated 5% on 2015-01-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-01-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 4% and said “Updating per Updating per http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-waron 2015-07-02
  • btrettel estimated 3% and said “That article has an error. The author says “One in three Russians now believe the US may invade” but the source says 31% of Russians who see the US as a threat believe they might invade. Not all Russians see the US as a threat.on 2015-07-02
  • btrettel said “Interesting read, otherwise.on 2015-07-02
  • David estimated 3% on 2015-07-03
  • btrettel said “Seems Vox had a few articles on this. Apparently this is from a poll of political scientists: “Probability of nuclear war between US and Russia: 2 percent” http://www.vox.com/2015/7/6/8900237/russia-war-oddson 2015-07-11
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 1% on 2015-11-08
  • themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-11-10
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2016-11-10
  • btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.

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