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That my wife will give birth to a baby girl

Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.

  • woodse estimated 85% on 2015-01-16
  • Serge estimated 48% and said “Base rate, w/o additional info.” on 2015-03-30
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2015-04-15
  • jesselevine estimated 50% and said “XX,XY, only 2/4 possible outcomes with Y, why would you guess anything but 50” on 2015-04-22
  • RoryS said “Well, base rate is slightly lower than 50% anyway, & one may take Woodse’s prediction as a sign that ze has info that might be relevant to bump up one’s initial prior?” on 2015-04-22
  • jesselevine said “Right, I was wondering about the 85 percent” on 2015-04-23
  • Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-06-04.