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I will think I've received some notable bit of 'positive' evidence that FMK is a bad idea by Monday 16th February. (FPP)

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-25.

  • KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 10% on 2015-01-17
  • KnaveOfAllTrades changed the deadline from “on 2015-02-16” and changed their prediction from “I will endorse the proposition that there was an FMK-'caused' F thing that felt like it was probably an Incident/Not Good between now and 06:00 Monday 16th February. (FPP)” on 2015-01-17
  • KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 30% on 2015-01-17
  • KnaveOfAllTrades   judged this prediction right on 2015-02-25.