Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now)

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

• RandomThinker estimated 68% on 2012-03-06
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 20% and said “I assume we talk about us market share here?” on 2012-03-06
• RandomThinker said “worldwide. I don’t think there’s a chance for US” on 2012-03-06
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “My scale is off. I still think they’ll do better than predicted by the tech media but they’re starting from really low point” on 2012-03-08
• Ben Doherty estimated 40% on 2012-04-10
• RandomThinker said “Yay! someone else bullish on the Windows phone. Lumia 700 for $99 is a good deal, and a much needed competitor to IOS/Android. The game isn’t over.” on 2012-04-10
• RandomThinker said “Oops meant Lumia 900” on 2012-04-10
• RandomThinker estimated 65% and said “Apparently, 6% calibration is not that far off. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/12/technology/nokia-lowers-estimate-for-1st-quarter-profit.html?hpw” on 2012-04-11
• scav estimated 40% on 2012-08-02
• Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-03-01.
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction unknown on 2013-04-01.
• RandomThinker said “I think it’s too early to tell yet. We only have Jan numbers. It’s 3.1% so its far away. Going to wait until March numbers to close. http://www.neowin.net/news/comscore-microsofts-us-smartphone-os-share-stagnant” on 2013-04-01
• RandomThinker said “Not sure what worldwide numbers are. Windows phone had 4.7% in Q1 of 2013 in the U.S. http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-windows-phone-gains-ground-report-20130401,0,6887918.story” on 2013-04-23
• RandomThinker said “Turns out Windows has better market share in the US than global. ” on 2013-06-15
• RandomThinker said “Globally – “While they’re not Android or iOS-style numbers, Windows Phone sold 7 million units in the first quarter of 2013 for 3.2 percent market share, according to the latest IDC report”” on 2013-06-15
• RandomThinker said “In the US – "In a three-month period ending in April 2013, the research firm found that Android devices accounted for 51.7% of smartphone sales in the U.S., compared to 41.4% from the iPhone and 5.6% from Windows Phone devices. "” on 2013-06-15
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-15.