My initial interpretation of that FB story I saw is correct.

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-01-18; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-18.

• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 64% on 2015-01-18
• KnaveOfAllTrades   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-18.