This website's statistics will show that people pick percentages with a '2' in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the 'my 2 cents'

Created by Larks on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-16; judged wrong by Larks on 2010-01-16.

  • Larks estimated 55% on 2009-10-17
  • anonym said “I think there’ll be a priming effect, but how to tell unless it’s huge? I wouldn’t expect equal numbers of 1/2/3/4 for other reasons.on 2009-10-17
  • othercriteria estimated 15% and said “I can imagine effects like (something analogous to) Benford’s Law strong enough to swamp any ‘2’ priming that might occur.on 2009-10-17
  • Arenamontanus estimated 40% on 2009-10-19
  • Pavitra estimated 90% and said “People seem to be choosing multiples of 5%, possibly because it feels less precise; a prediction of 24% or 26% feels like greater certainty than 25%.on 2009-10-23
  • Pavitra estimated 10% and said “Oh crud, I meant 90% against.on 2009-10-23
  • Larks   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-01-16.

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