90% of us will be drunk on the first night of camp

Created by dkim126 on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.

• dkim126 estimated 90% on 2012-03-08
• evan estimated 90% and said “71% of the class will be drunk on the first night of camp” on 2012-03-08
• ivan estimated 89% on 2012-03-08
• Ben Doherty estimated 45% and said “If there are 15 of us (14 students and me), then 90% of that is 13.5people, if we round up to 14, knowing that I don’t drink, then you ALL nee to get drunk, if you round down you might be more on the money.How are you defining drunk?” on 2012-03-08
• Ben Doherty said “It was a close thing, but at least 4 people weren’t drunk (even ambiguously so), so this ought to end up as wrong” on 2012-03-11
• Ben Doherty   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-13.