A or P at P with retroactive >=90% probability

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.

• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 50% on 2015-01-22
• KnaveOfAllTrades changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-25” and changed their prediction from “A or P at P” on 2015-01-22
• KnaveOfAllTrades   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-04-02.