http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known.

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02.

• scott.arbeitman estimated 50% on 2012-03-21
• Isaac estimated 95% on 2012-03-21
• Isaac said “whoops wrong prediction” on 2012-03-21
• Anubhav estimated 3% on 2012-03-22
• ahartell estimated 10% on 2012-03-22
• Isaac estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
• saturn estimated 3% on 2012-03-27
• lavalamp estimated 8% on 2012-03-27
• saturn said “Now I regret making an estimate on this since there’s no indication of what qualifies as a “hit”.” on 2012-03-29
• average_joe estimated 13% on 2012-03-30
• scott.arbeitman changed their prediction from “http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days.” on 2012-04-02
• scott.arbeitman changed their prediction from “http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as > 1,000 page views a day.” on 2012-04-02
• scott.arbeitman changed their prediction from “http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being know.” on 2012-04-08
• scott.arbeitman estimated 10% and said “We did have some 1000+ page view days, but on average, it’s much lower.” on 2012-04-08
• scott.arbeitman   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-05-02.