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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency.

Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.

  • RESO estimated 40% on 2015-02-05
  • sweeneyrod estimated 15% on 2015-02-06
  • Chri estimated 1% on 2015-02-06
  • rebellionkid estimated 1% on 2015-02-07
  • doxievee estimated 2% and said “He doesn’t have that power. The most he could do would be to suspend the enforcement of federal laws (as he did on the Defense of Marriage Act), but that isn’t going to happen either.” on 2015-02-07
  • EloiseRosen estimated 2% on 2015-02-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Conjunction fallacy. ” on 2015-02-15
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2015-02-15
  • The_Offwo estimated 0% and said “Him doing this; just about plausible. Him doing this on THAT EXACT DAY, unlikely.” on 2015-02-15
  • quicklystarfish estimated 0% and said “(0.001%) On the last day, literally? I don’t think so.” on 2015-02-16
  • Faceh estimated 0% and said “Unless this person has some special knowledge of Obama’s plan for the next two years then there is no way to make the estimate that high. He could do it on any of the days between now and his last day, for instance.” on 2015-02-16
  • asd   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-02-19.
  • asd   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-02-19.
  • asd said “Oops, sorry about that. Pressed the wrong button _” on 2015-02-19
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2015-02-19
  • ChristianKl estimated 0% on 2015-02-21
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2015-02-22
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “That would be funny, but highly unlikely.” on 2016-01-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 18% on 2016-04-14
  • daccount10 estimated 1% on 2017-01-14
  • Faceh estimated 3% and said “Updating. Still don’t think it will happen but Obama has been doing some subtly disruptive actions, and legalizing marijuana would be in line with that. But doing in on his VERY last day? Still unlikely.” on 2017-01-17
  • Temeraire estimated 5% on 2017-01-19
  • RESO   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-20.
  • RESO said “Probably should not have put odds that high. Absolutely wrong on this one.” on 2017-01-20
  • PseudonymousUser said “there’s still time” on 2017-01-20