It will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-27.

• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2015-02-13
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2015-03-25” and changed their prediction from “It will be clear by 2015. March 25 that the Minsk ceasfire did not hold” on 2015-02-13
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2015-03-25” and changed their prediction from “It will be clear by 2015. March 25 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold” on 2015-02-13
• EloiseRosen estimated 70% on 2015-02-13
• doxievee estimated 75% on 2015-02-16
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31475744 suggests so far is holding. ” on 2015-02-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% and said “Recent violence and retreat make failure much more likely. ” on 2015-02-18
• EloiseRosen estimated 80% on 2015-02-18
• timujin estimated 30% on 2015-02-21
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31571465 suggests strongly that things will actually work out. ” on 2015-02-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-02-22
• kuudes estimated 40% on 2015-03-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-03-10
• EloiseRosen estimated 25% on 2015-03-16
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-27.