Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
- RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-05-08
- Jayson Virissimo said “How many self-driving cars do you think will be on the road in 2018?” on 2012-05-09
- RandomThinker said “@Jayson not many. But Google test drives the car, and it’s bound to get into an accident at some time. Plus there could be niche/test deployments, like when Segway first started.” on 2012-05-09
- RandomThinker said “@Jayson apparently, there was a minor “fender bender” last year, blamed on human errorhttp://jalopnik.com/5828101/this-is-googles-first-self+driving-car-crash” on 2012-05-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2012-05-09
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 45% and said “If you took “Google” off the beginning og the statement my estimate would be much higher. Also, determing the $ value of damage could be tricky; it isn’t always reported on in news articles.” on 2012-05-22
- Sarokrae estimated 15% and said “Correct me if I’m wrong, traffic accident rate per person per year is somewhat under 1%, and mostly due to human error… Even adjusting upwards for extra time on the road, it’s still not that likely.” on 2012-05-22
- Sarokrae said “Sorry, reading the comments, should have made it clear that my estimate is for an accident /while the car is driving itself/. If there is consensus otherwise, I’ll update accordingly.” on 2012-05-22
- RandomThinker said “@Sarokrae 1% sounds too low. A person will probably get into 2 or 3 accidents in their lifetime. And they only drive about 50 years or so max. Google has multiple cars, and they’re each being driven more.” on 2012-05-23
- lukas estimated 62% on 2012-05-24
- davidiach estimated 90% on 2012-06-06
- mad estimated 30% and said “It really depends how many cars get added to the fleet between now and then, and what counts as “human injury”. Low odds because accidents of that severity are extremely rare in my office’s cars, and we probably are in same O(n).” on 2015-01-06
- rictic estimated 65% on 2015-05-16
- RandomThinker said “Press always making excuses for robots. http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jun/28/google-self-driving-cars-accidents” on 2015-06-29
- RandomThinker said “10x the average of fender benders, but no report of the $$ amount of damage.” on 2015-06-29
- elecnix estimated 10% on 2016-06-28
- themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “the fact this hasn’t been claimed is actually quite amazing.” on 2016-10-10
- mad said “https://thenextweb.com/google/2016/09/26/googles-self-driving-car-involved-worst-crash-yet/ I feel like this is more than $2k damage from the photo.” on 2017-05-08
- elecnix judged this prediction right on 2022-12-10.