Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late.

Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.

• JohnWittle estimated 62% on 2015-02-28
• JohnWittle said “My $3 on the above prediction, to Tenoke’s $5 on the inverse of the above prediction.” on 2015-02-28
• Tenoke estimated 25% on 2015-02-28
• Tenoke estimated 25% and said “I also have the same bet with Gurkenglas (my $5 vs his $3).” on 2015-02-28
• Gurkenglas estimated 62% and said “Yes we do.” on 2015-02-28
• Chri estimated 10% on 2015-03-01
• rebellionkid estimated 20% on 2015-03-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-03-01
• tedks estimated 1% on 2015-03-02
• rebellionkid said “Does this count as fulfilled? He’s not said which submission was the winner, but his answer does this” on 2015-03-05
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-05.
• JoshuaZ said “That certainly seems like acceptance to me. ” on 2015-03-05