There'll be another big trader loss incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-05-12
• RandomThinker said “Last well known one was in Sep 2011, now JPM. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/15/us-ubs-idUSTRE78E15I20110915” on 2012-05-12
• RandomThinker changed their prediction from “There'll be another rogue trader incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013” on 2012-05-12
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_trader” on 2013-11-16
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2013-11-16
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.