Nuclear war in 25 years.

Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16

  • argothiel estimated 1% on 2015-03-04
  • JoshuaZ said “How large a nuclear exchange is needed for something to count as nuclear war? on 2015-03-04
  • argothiel said “It means using a nuclear bomb to a territory of another country and a response of using a nuclear bomb to an attacer.on 2015-03-05
  • argothiel estimated 5% on 2015-03-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-03-05
  • argothiel said “And it’ll be by countries, not by terrorists.on 2015-03-05
  • Chri estimated 1% on 2015-03-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 16% and said “Updating per Updating per http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-waron 2015-07-02
  • David estimated 20% on 2015-07-03
  • argothiel estimated 7% on 2015-10-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “I appear to generally overestimate probability of military conflicts. Updating accordingly. on 2015-10-25
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “Unlikely. Major nuclear nations are unwilling to nuke each other.on 2015-11-08
  • argothiel estimated 10% and said “Updating due to Russian behavior lately.on 2015-11-27
  • JoshuaZ estimated 13% on 2015-11-27
  • themusicgod1 estimated 15% on 2016-07-09

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