Nuclear war in 25 years.

Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16

• argothiel estimated 1% on 2015-03-04
• JoshuaZ said “How large a nuclear exchange is needed for something to count as nuclear war? ” on 2015-03-04
• argothiel said “It means using a nuclear bomb to a territory of another country and a response of using a nuclear bomb to an attacer.” on 2015-03-05
• argothiel estimated 5% on 2015-03-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-03-05
• argothiel said “And it’ll be by countries, not by terrorists.” on 2015-03-05
• Chri estimated 1% on 2015-03-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 16% and said “Updating per Updating per http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war” on 2015-07-02
• David estimated 20% on 2015-07-03
• argothiel estimated 7% on 2015-10-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “I appear to generally overestimate probability of military conflicts. Updating accordingly. ” on 2015-10-25
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “Unlikely. Major nuclear nations are unwilling to nuke each other.” on 2015-11-08
• argothiel estimated 10% and said “Updating due to Russian behavior lately.” on 2015-11-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 13% on 2015-11-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 15% on 2016-07-09