The answer I just wrote on Quora will get more than 100 upvotes by the end of the month.

Created by Mati on 2015-03-08; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-04-01.

• Mati estimated 4% on 2015-03-08
• Mati   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-04-01.