The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals)

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-05-25
• RandomThinker said “Does E.T. within solar system include bacteria? Does it include fossils?” on 2012-05-26
• NathanMcKnight said “Yep, I’ll include bacteria and fossils. ” on 2012-05-30
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “Comparing 2 ultra-low probability events. ” on 2012-05-31
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “Comparing 2 ultra-low probability events. ” on 2012-05-31
• army1987 estimated 5% and said “If neither happens before 2020-01-01, does it count as “no” or is it void?” on 2012-06-05
• NathanMcKnight said “If neither happens, then it’s void and I’ll re-submit with a longer timeline.” on 2012-07-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-10
• Bruno Parga said “I say this should just be resubmitted with a loooong timeframe.” on 2020-01-01