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World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024).

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02

  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-03-10
  • JoshuaZ said “$50 bet with shortbaldman see on 2015-03-10
  • JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2026-02-01” and changed their prediction from “World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025).” on 2015-03-10
  • JoshuaZ said “Apparently I can’t count. on 2015-03-10
  • JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2026-02-01on 2015-03-10
  • EloiseRosen estimated 25% on 2015-03-11
  • EloiseRosen said “Do you actually ever get money from random internet people when they lose? I’d be worried that I’d always be sending out money when I lose but never receiving it when I win because there is no enforcement mechanism.on 2015-03-11
  • Unknowns estimated 5% on 2015-03-11
  • JoshuaZ said “EloiseRose, We’ll see. So far I’ve tried to restrict myself to bets that I’m somewhat confident on and only have made the bet if it still makes sense that in event of a win I estimate a 50% chance of non-payment. on 2015-03-11
  • blsm estimated 20% on 2015-03-12
  • orthonormal estimated 20% and said “However, many of the cases where this happens will also take down PredictionBook.on 2015-03-19
  • Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2015-03-24
  • orthonormal estimated 12% and said “Anchoring effects made me guess higher at first than I should have.on 2015-04-29
  • btrettel estimated 5% on 2015-07-26
  • mrmrpotatohead estimated 3% and said “only 2 that would lead to this outcome:1 – world war2 – pandemicI give a one in 200 year base rate, but any given year is correlated w neighbors. So let’s say only ~2%. W modern medicine/CDC i give only 0.5% to pandemic affectingon 2016-03-23