Michael Phelps will not solely win the most gold medals in 2012 (he may tie, but won't win the most outright).

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

• RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2012-07-26
• RandomThinker said “He’s won the most in 2004 (6) and 2008 (8), outright.” on 2012-07-26
• RandomThinker said “He’s not starting well. http://espn.go.com/olympics/story/_/id/8209216/2012-summer-olympics-ryan-lochte-wins-400-im-michael-phelps-finishes-4th. ” on 2012-07-28
• RandomThinker said “It’s not that I’m anti-Phelps, he’s just had such a great run that it can’t continue forever.” on 2012-07-28
• RandomThinker said “Pretty close. Phelps and Missy Franklin tied with 4 gold medals (Phelps had more total medals though) http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1268336-olympic-medal-count-2012-table-usas-most-impressive-athletes-in-london” on 2012-08-13
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2012-08-13.