Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020

Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.

• RandomThinker estimated 50% on 2015-03-25
• RandomThinker said “http://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk” on 2015-03-25
• RandomThinker said “Most likely of the 3 as long as the market doesn’t tank.” on 2015-03-25
• RandomThinker said “He’s willing to put $100k of his own money on this!” on 2015-03-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-03-26
• lettergram estimated 90% and said “There are 114 companies in the batch, I am pretty sure that 1% can be worth $1b, 5% can be worth $100m, then another 10% worth 20m, 20% worth 10m, 30% worth 5m… etc. That’ll add up above $3b pretty easily.” on 2015-03-26
• RandomThinker said “Yea, on second thought this can go up to 65%. There are a ton of companies there, and YC is still the cream of the crop (and probably still be in 5 years). ” on 2015-03-28
• RandomThinker said “I’ll stick though since I don’t like to change my predictions unless there is big external event.” on 2015-03-28
• pranomostro estimated 80% on 2018-12-08
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2018-12-08
• qznc   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-03.