The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-08-31
• William-Quixote estimated 45% on 2012-09-09
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 20% on 2012-09-19
• Pablo estimated 13% on 2012-09-29
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 1% on 2012-10-09
• chemotaxis101 estimated 0% on 2012-10-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-10-16
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-20.